{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "$id": "https://k4cell.com/schemas/k4-prediction-registry-v1.json",
  "title": "K4 signed prediction registry",
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": false,
  "required": [
    "schema",
    "artifact_status",
    "recorded_at_utc",
    "official_mint",
    "mainnet_authorized",
    "founder",
    "signing_policy",
    "entries",
    "next_acceptance"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "schema": { "const": "K4-PREDICTION-REGISTRY-v1" },
    "artifact_status": {
      "enum": ["OPEN_EMPTY_REGISTRY", "ACTIVE_REGISTRY"]
    },
    "recorded_at_utc": { "$ref": "#/$defs/utc_timestamp" },
    "official_mint": { "type": "null" },
    "mainnet_authorized": { "const": false },
    "founder": { "$ref": "#/$defs/founder" },
    "signing_policy": { "$ref": "#/$defs/signing_policy" },
    "entries": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": { "$ref": "#/$defs/prediction_entry" }
    },
    "next_acceptance": {
      "type": "array",
      "minItems": 1,
      "uniqueItems": true,
      "items": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 }
    }
  },
  "$defs": {
    "sha256": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{64}$"
    },
    "git_commit": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{40}$"
    },
    "fingerprint": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^[0-9A-F]{40}$"
    },
    "utc_timestamp": {
      "type": "string",
      "pattern": "^[0-9]{4}-[0-9]{2}-[0-9]{2}T[0-9]{2}:[0-9]{2}:[0-9]{2}Z$"
    },
    "nullable_string": {
      "type": ["string", "null"]
    },
    "nullable_sha256": {
      "anyOf": [
        { "$ref": "#/$defs/sha256" },
        { "type": "null" }
      ]
    },
    "nullable_commit": {
      "anyOf": [
        { "$ref": "#/$defs/git_commit" },
        { "type": "null" }
      ]
    },
    "nullable_timestamp": {
      "anyOf": [
        { "$ref": "#/$defs/utc_timestamp" },
        { "type": "null" }
      ]
    },
    "founder": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "name",
        "email",
        "primary_fingerprint",
        "signing_subkey_fingerprint"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "name": { "const": "Zhihua Liang" },
        "email": { "const": "zhihua@k4cell.com" },
        "primary_fingerprint": {
          "const": "C74953F60AD573F54A3FD06C72213914E4860F47"
        },
        "signing_subkey_fingerprint": {
          "const": "0427411FA4820FDA5EBFB79B48D9A06D3C49431F"
        }
      }
    },
    "signing_policy": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "signature_format",
        "required_payload_fields",
        "registration_rule",
        "retrospective_rule"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "signature_format": { "const": "OPENPGP_ARMORED_DETACHED" },
        "required_payload_fields": {
          "const": [
            "prediction_id",
            "theory_artifact_sha256",
            "observable",
            "target_dataset_or_release",
            "knowledge_cutoff_utc",
            "prediction_exact_text",
            "nuisance_parameters",
            "analysis_recipe",
            "analysis_code_sha256",
            "falsifier"
          ]
        },
        "registration_rule": {
          "type": "string",
          "minLength": 1
        },
        "retrospective_rule": {
          "type": "string",
          "minLength": 1
        }
      }
    },
    "prediction_entry": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "prediction_id",
        "title",
        "state",
        "provenance_class",
        "theory",
        "derivation",
        "observable",
        "target",
        "prediction",
        "nuisance_parameters",
        "analysis",
        "falsifier",
        "registration",
        "comparison",
        "supersession",
        "epistemic_boundary"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "prediction_id": {
          "type": "string",
          "pattern": "^K4-PRED-[0-9]{4}$"
        },
        "title": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "state": {
          "enum": [
            "DRAFT",
            "PREREGISTERED",
            "DATA_AVAILABLE",
            "COMPARED",
            "SUPERSEDED"
          ]
        },
        "provenance_class": {
          "enum": [
            "RETROSPECTIVE",
            "PREDICTION_CANDIDATE",
            "NOT_YET_OBSERVABLE"
          ]
        },
        "theory": { "$ref": "#/$defs/theory" },
        "derivation": { "$ref": "#/$defs/derivation" },
        "observable": { "$ref": "#/$defs/observable" },
        "target": { "$ref": "#/$defs/target" },
        "prediction": { "$ref": "#/$defs/prediction" },
        "nuisance_parameters": {
          "type": "array",
          "items": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nuisance_parameter" }
        },
        "analysis": { "$ref": "#/$defs/analysis" },
        "falsifier": { "$ref": "#/$defs/falsifier" },
        "registration": { "$ref": "#/$defs/registration" },
        "comparison": { "$ref": "#/$defs/comparison" },
        "supersession": { "$ref": "#/$defs/supersession" },
        "epistemic_boundary": { "$ref": "#/$defs/epistemic_boundary" }
      }
    },
    "theory": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "repository_url",
        "commit_sha",
        "artifact_path",
        "artifact_sha256",
        "paper_doi",
        "paper_url"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "repository_url": { "type": "string", "format": "uri" },
        "commit_sha": { "$ref": "#/$defs/git_commit" },
        "artifact_path": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "artifact_sha256": { "$ref": "#/$defs/sha256" },
        "paper_doi": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_string" },
        "paper_url": {
          "anyOf": [
            { "type": "string", "format": "uri" },
            { "type": "null" }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    "derivation": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "source_native",
        "status",
        "dependencies",
        "open_bridges"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "source_native": { "type": "boolean" },
        "status": { "enum": ["OPEN", "SUPPORTED", "ESTABLISHED"] },
        "dependencies": {
          "type": "array",
          "minItems": 1,
          "uniqueItems": true,
          "items": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 }
        },
        "open_bridges": {
          "type": "array",
          "uniqueItems": true,
          "items": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 }
        }
      }
    },
    "observable": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "name",
        "symbol",
        "definition",
        "kind",
        "unit",
        "domain",
        "evaluation_time_or_scale"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "name": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "symbol": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "definition": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "kind": {
          "enum": [
            "SCALAR",
            "INTERVAL",
            "DISTRIBUTION",
            "SHAPE",
            "SIGN",
            "COUNT",
            "CORRELATION",
            "FUNCTION"
          ]
        },
        "unit": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_string" },
        "domain": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "evaluation_time_or_scale": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 }
      }
    },
    "target": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "experiment_or_survey",
        "dataset_or_release",
        "official_source_url",
        "knowledge_cutoff_utc",
        "target_data_public_at_cutoff",
        "registration_before_target_analysis",
        "expected_availability_utc"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "experiment_or_survey": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "dataset_or_release": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "official_source_url": { "type": "string", "format": "uri" },
        "knowledge_cutoff_utc": { "$ref": "#/$defs/utc_timestamp" },
        "target_data_public_at_cutoff": { "type": "boolean" },
        "registration_before_target_analysis": { "type": "boolean" },
        "expected_availability_utc": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_timestamp" }
      }
    },
    "prediction": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "representation",
        "exact_text",
        "value",
        "uncertainty_or_tolerance",
        "parameter_free",
        "model_parameters"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "representation": {
          "enum": [
            "SCALAR",
            "INTERVAL",
            "DISTRIBUTION",
            "SHAPE",
            "SIGN",
            "COUNT",
            "CORRELATION",
            "FUNCTION"
          ]
        },
        "exact_text": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "value": {},
        "uncertainty_or_tolerance": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "parameter_free": { "type": "boolean" },
        "model_parameters": {
          "type": "array",
          "items": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
          "uniqueItems": true
        }
      }
    },
    "nuisance_parameter": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["name", "allowed_values_or_range", "treatment", "source"],
      "properties": {
        "name": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "allowed_values_or_range": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "treatment": {
          "enum": ["FIXED", "PROFILED", "MARGINALIZED", "NONE"]
        },
        "source": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 }
      }
    },
    "analysis": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "recipe",
        "code_repository_url",
        "code_commit",
        "code_sha256",
        "covariance_or_likelihood_source",
        "test_statistic",
        "multiple_testing_policy"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "recipe": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "code_repository_url": {
          "anyOf": [
            { "type": "string", "format": "uri" },
            { "type": "null" }
          ]
        },
        "code_commit": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_commit" },
        "code_sha256": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_sha256" },
        "covariance_or_likelihood_source": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "test_statistic": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "multiple_testing_policy": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 }
      }
    },
    "falsifier": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["statement", "rule_type", "machine_rule", "decision_threshold"],
      "properties": {
        "statement": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "rule_type": {
          "enum": [
            "THRESHOLD",
            "INTERVAL",
            "LIKELIHOOD",
            "SHAPE",
            "SIGN",
            "EXCLUSION",
            "CUSTOM"
          ]
        },
        "machine_rule": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "decision_threshold": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 }
      }
    },
    "registration": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "payload_sha256",
        "signature_sha256",
        "signed_at_utc",
        "primary_fingerprint",
        "signing_subkey_fingerprint"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "payload_sha256": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_sha256" },
        "signature_sha256": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_sha256" },
        "signed_at_utc": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_timestamp" },
        "primary_fingerprint": {
          "anyOf": [
            { "$ref": "#/$defs/fingerprint" },
            { "type": "null" }
          ]
        },
        "signing_subkey_fingerprint": {
          "anyOf": [
            { "$ref": "#/$defs/fingerprint" },
            { "type": "null" }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    "comparison": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "state",
        "dataset_url",
        "data_retrieved_at_utc",
        "analysis_commit",
        "result",
        "statistic",
        "report_path",
        "report_sha256"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "state": {
          "enum": ["NOT_AVAILABLE", "READY", "COMPARED", "SUPERSEDED"]
        },
        "dataset_url": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_string" },
        "data_retrieved_at_utc": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_timestamp" },
        "analysis_commit": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_commit" },
        "result": {
          "type": ["string", "null"],
          "enum": [
            null,
            "SUPPORTED",
            "TENSION",
            "FALSIFIED_AS_STATED",
            "INCONCLUSIVE"
          ]
        },
        "statistic": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_string" },
        "report_path": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_string" },
        "report_sha256": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_sha256" }
      }
    },
    "supersession": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "supersedes_prediction_id",
        "superseded_by_prediction_id",
        "change_reason"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "supersedes_prediction_id": {
          "type": ["string", "null"],
          "pattern": "^K4-PRED-[0-9]{4}$"
        },
        "superseded_by_prediction_id": {
          "type": ["string", "null"],
          "pattern": "^K4-PRED-[0-9]{4}$"
        },
        "change_reason": { "$ref": "#/$defs/nullable_string" }
      }
    },
    "epistemic_boundary": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "scientific_scope",
        "public_attention_direct_weight",
        "funding_signal_direct_weight",
        "token_market_direct_weight",
        "whole_theory_confirmed"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "scientific_scope": { "type": "string", "minLength": 1 },
        "public_attention_direct_weight": { "const": 0 },
        "funding_signal_direct_weight": { "const": 0 },
        "token_market_direct_weight": { "const": 0 },
        "whole_theory_confirmed": { "const": false }
      }
    }
  }
}